HODL Calculator: Simulate Bear Market Impact
Simulate Your Investment Outcome
Enter your current investment details to see how your portfolio would perform during a bear market. Based on historical data showing crypto markets typically recover after average 287-day bear markets.
Key Bear Market Insights
• Avg. bear market duration: 287 days • Historical recovery rate: 100% • 2022-2023 DCA reduced entry prices by 37.2% • 68.4% who sold at June 2022 low regretted it
Your Portfolio Estimate
When Bitcoin dropped below $18,000 in June 2022, thousands of new crypto investors panicked and sold. They watched their portfolios shrink by half, then two-thirds, then more. Some never bought back in. Meanwhile, the people who stayed calm, stuck to their plan, and kept buying-often at lower prices-ended up turning $10,000 into over $150,000 by late 2024. That’s not luck. That’s HODLing.
What HODLing Really Means (And What It Doesn’t)
HODL isn’t just holding onto your crypto and hoping for the best. It’s a disciplined strategy built on three pillars: patience, preparation, and protection. The term started as a typo in a 2013 Bitcoin forum post, but it’s since become the most successful long-term approach in crypto history. Since 2010, Bitcoin has returned over 1,950,000%-despite four major bear markets that wiped out 70% to 84% of its value each time. But here’s the catch: HODLing doesn’t mean buying any coin and forgetting about it. If you HODLed Terra (LUNA) in 2022, you lost everything when it collapsed to $0.0001. HODLing works only if you’re holding the right assets.Choose Your Assets Like a Pro
Not all cryptocurrencies are created equal. The market has matured. Since 2018, 42% of the top 100 coins by market cap have vanished. The survivors? Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a few others with strong networks, real usage, and institutional backing. A smart HODL portfolio looks like this:- 65% Bitcoin (BTC) - The original, most tested, and most resilient asset. It’s the anchor of your portfolio.
- 25% Ethereum (ETH) - The backbone of DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts. It’s the second-most proven asset.
- 10% high-potential Layer 2 or ecosystem tokens - Think Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), or Polygon (MATIC). These are growth plays, but keep them small.
Dollar-Cost Averaging Is Your Secret Weapon
Buying all your crypto in one lump sum during a bear market is risky. What if the price keeps falling? What if you buy at $20,000 and it drops to $15,000? You’ll feel terrible. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) solves this. Instead of investing all your money at once, you buy small amounts regularly-like $500 every two weeks. Koinly’s analysis of 12,500 successful HODLers showed DCA reduced average entry prices by 37.2% during the 2022-2023 bear market. Here’s how to do it:- Decide how much you can afford to invest monthly (e.g., $1,000).
- Split it into bi-weekly chunks ($500 every two weeks).
- Buy BTC or ETH on the same day each time, no matter what the price is.
- Keep going-even when the market feels like it’s collapsing.
Protect Yourself With Stablecoins and Emergency Cash
One of the biggest reasons people sell during bear markets? They need money. Maybe their job got cut. Maybe their rent is due. Maybe they panicked and thought, “I’ll just sell a little to cover expenses.” Don’t let that happen. Before you even start HODLing, make sure you have:- 3 to 6 months of living expenses saved in cash or stablecoins (like USDC or USDT).
- No crypto money used for bills, rent, or emergencies.
Use Technology, Not Emotions
Your brain is wired to panic when your portfolio drops. That’s normal. But you don’t have to act on it. Automate what you can:- Set up recurring buys on Coinbase, Kraken, or Binance.
- Use a trailing stop-loss (like on Cryptohopper) to lock in gains if the market surges. For example, if you bought BTC at $45,000 and it hits $60,000, a 10% trailing stop moves your sell point to $54,000. If it drops, you’re protected.
- Try a “Smart HODL Bot” (launched in March 2024) that combines DCA with automatic rebalancing. Backtests show these bots outperformed pure HODL by 22.8% during the 2022 bear market.
Don’t Compare Yourself to Traders
You’ll see people on Twitter bragging about making 50% in a week by trading derivatives or shorting Ethereum. Don’t fall for it. CoinGecko’s 2024 report found that 89.3% of retail traders underperformed Bitcoin’s HODL returns during the 2022 bear market. Only 10.7% made more than just holding BTC. Most lost money. HODLing isn’t about being the fastest. It’s about being the most consistent. The goal isn’t to beat the market-it’s to outlast it.What to Do When It Feels Like the End
Bear markets test your soul. When BTC drops 70%, it’s easy to think, “This time is different.” But history says otherwise. Since 2013, crypto bear markets have lasted an average of 287 days. The 2018 one lasted 342 days. The 2022 one lasted 217 days before bouncing back. Each time, Bitcoin recovered-and then some. When you feel overwhelmed:- Re-read your investment thesis: Why did you buy Bitcoin? Is it still valid?
- Check your portfolio’s performance against the market-not your neighbor’s crypto meme coin.
- Remember: 73.5% of all Bitcoin wallets are still holding for over a year (as of September 2024). You’re not alone.
Long-Term Outlook: Why This Still Works
Institutional adoption is growing. Grayscale reports that 34.2% of all Bitcoin is now held by institutions with average holding periods of 427 days-more than a year. That’s not speculation. That’s conviction. Standard Chartered predicts Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by 2030. That’s over 7 times its current price. Even if there’s another 60% drop before then, HODLers who bought during the lows will still profit massively. The key isn’t predicting the next bull run. It’s surviving the next bear run.Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Buying random altcoins - 42% of top 100 coins from 2018 are gone. Don’t be a statistic.
- Investing more than 5-10% of your net worth - Crypto is volatile. Don’t risk your house, your retirement, or your kid’s college fund.
- Selling out of fear - 68.4% of people who sold at the June 2022 Bitcoin low regretted it. Most bought back higher.
- Ignoring DCA - Lump-sum investing during a bear market is gambling. DCA is strategy.
Final Thought: HODLing Is a Mindset
HODLing isn’t about getting rich quick. It’s about building wealth slowly, steadily, and without panic. It’s about trusting the math, not the headlines. The people who win in crypto aren’t the ones who time the market. They’re the ones who outlast it. If you’ve got the discipline to buy small, hold long, and ignore the noise-you’re already ahead of 90% of investors.Is HODLing still a good strategy in 2025?
Yes. HODLing remains the most profitable long-term strategy in crypto. Institutional adoption is growing, Bitcoin’s supply is becoming scarcer due to halvings, and historical data shows that every bear market has been followed by a larger bull run. Combined with dollar-cost averaging and smart asset selection, HODLing continues to generate massive returns over time.
Should I HODL altcoins or just Bitcoin and Ethereum?
Focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum for 90% of your portfolio. They’re the only two assets with proven survival through multiple bear markets. If you want exposure to altcoins, limit them to 10% of your portfolio and only pick ones with strong fundamentals, active development, and real use cases. Avoid meme coins and projects with no revenue or team.
How long do crypto bear markets usually last?
Since 2013, crypto bear markets have lasted an average of 287 days. The longest was 342 days in 2018-2019. The 2022 bear market lasted 217 days before recovery began. While duration varies, history shows recovery always follows. Patience is your biggest advantage.
What’s the difference between HODLing and dollar-cost averaging?
HODLing means buying crypto and holding it long-term. Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) is a method to execute HODLing-buying fixed amounts regularly, regardless of price. DCA reduces the risk of buying at the top and smooths out your average cost. Most successful HODLers use DCA.
Can I lose everything HODLing crypto?
You can lose money if you invest in weak or fraudulent projects. Terra (LUNA) collapsed to near zero in 2022. But if you stick to Bitcoin and Ethereum-the two most resilient assets-you won’t lose everything. Even during the worst bear markets, BTC and ETH recovered and surged higher. The risk is in poor asset selection, not the HODL strategy itself.
How much of my net worth should I put into crypto?
Most financial advisors recommend allocating no more than 5% to 10% of your net worth to crypto. It’s a high-risk, high-reward asset class. Never invest money you might need for bills, emergencies, or major life events. Only use money you can afford to lose-or hold for 5+ years.
Do I need to use a trading bot to HODL successfully?
No. You can HODL successfully with just a simple exchange account and recurring buys. But bots can help automate DCA, set trailing stops, and rebalance your portfolio. If you struggle with discipline or forget to buy, a bot like Cryptohopper’s Smart HODL can reduce emotional mistakes. It’s a tool, not a requirement.
Kathy Wood
December 13, 2025 AT 00:19Wow. Just... wow. This is the most naive, delusional financial advice I’ve ever read. HODLing? Please. You’re literally telling people to throw money into a casino and pray. And you call it a ‘strategy’? You’re not an investor-you’re a gambler with a spreadsheet.
Claire Zapanta
December 14, 2025 AT 06:33Of course the elite want you to HODL. It keeps the sheeple buying while they dump their bags into ETFs. The Fed, BlackRock, and the IMF are all quietly accumulating BTC while you’re DCA’ing $500 every two weeks. You think this is about ‘wealth building’? It’s about control. The system wants you distracted with ‘crypto’ while they print trillions. Wake up.
Nicholas Ethan
December 16, 2025 AT 00:08Statistical cherry picking. Bitcoin’s 1.95M% return since 2010 ignores survivorship bias. 92% of altcoins have failed. DCA reduces volatility but does not alter long-term expected value. Institutional adoption metrics are misleading-most holdings are custodial, not strategic. The 2030 $250K prediction is a fantasy extrapolation with zero macroeconomic grounding.
Andy Walton
December 16, 2025 AT 08:19bro i just want to say... this post made me cry 😭 i’ve been HODLing since 2017 and i lost my dog last year and my rent went up and i still bought btc every payday even when i ate ramen for 3 months... this isn’t about money it’s about faith in the future 🤍
Candace Murangi
December 17, 2025 AT 23:34I’ve been in crypto since 2015. I’ve seen three bear markets. I didn’t HODL because I believed in a myth. I did it because I tracked the tech, not the price. The blockchain isn’t going away. Neither is Bitcoin’s scarcity. If you’re scared, that’s fine. But don’t call it stupid because you didn’t do your homework.
Albert Chau
December 18, 2025 AT 07:27How many people reading this have actually read the Bitcoin whitepaper? Or understand the difference between proof-of-work and proof-of-stake? No? Then why are you listening to some blog post that uses the word ‘smart’ 17 times? You’re not an investor. You’re a consumer of content.
Jessica Petry
December 20, 2025 AT 04:55Ugh. Another ‘just buy BTC and ETH’ sermon. How about we talk about the fact that 70% of BTC is held by less than 1% of wallets? That’s not decentralization-that’s a plutocracy with a blockchain logo. And you call this ‘resilient’? It’s just a monopoly with a cult.
JoAnne Geigner
December 21, 2025 AT 05:08I really appreciate how thoughtful this guide is. I’m a teacher in rural Ohio, and I’ve been DCA’ing $200/month since 2021. My students don’t even know what Bitcoin is-but I tell them, ‘If you save consistently, even a little, you’ll be ahead of most people by 30.’ This isn’t about getting rich. It’s about building discipline. Thank you.
Anselmo Buffet
December 22, 2025 AT 15:50Been doing this since 2019. Bought my first 0.01 BTC for $400. Now I own 0.5. Didn’t sell when it hit $20k. Didn’t panic at $16k. Didn’t even check my portfolio for 6 months once. Just kept working my job. Crypto’s a side thing. Life’s the main thing. This post got it right.
Taylor Fallon
December 22, 2025 AT 16:28you know what’s funny? i used to think hodling was for losers until i started reading real research. now i use a bot to auto-buy btc every monday. i don’t even think about it. it’s like paying a bill. the market doesn’t care if you’re scared. it just moves. and if you’re calm? it rewards you. 🌱
PRECIOUS EGWABOR
December 24, 2025 AT 04:17So you’re telling me that a 2013 typo is now the foundation of modern finance? And you’re not embarrassed? You’re basically asking people to believe in a meme as if it’s gold. If this were a startup pitch, I’d laugh and walk out. But here we are. Welcome to the cult.
Kathleen Sudborough
December 26, 2025 AT 01:22I lost everything in LUNA. I cried for a week. Then I read this guide. I started DCA’ing BTC and ETH with $100/month. I didn’t get rich. But I didn’t quit either. And now, two years later, I’ve doubled my money. Not because I’m smart. Because I kept showing up. That’s the real lesson here.
Vidhi Kotak
December 26, 2025 AT 12:30In India, we call this ‘dil se invest karna’-invest from the heart. But we also know not to put all our savings in one place. This guide is balanced. I’ve shared it with my cousin who works at a call center. He now buys $10 of BTC every Friday. He’s happy. That’s enough.
Kim Throne
December 27, 2025 AT 16:56While the general framework is sound, the omission of tax implications and regulatory risk is significant. In the U.S., capital gains on crypto are taxed as property. In the EU, MiCA introduces compliance burdens. The article assumes a frictionless environment that does not exist. A more rigorous analysis would address jurisdictional exposure.
Caroline Fletcher
December 28, 2025 AT 09:40So you're telling me the same people who told us to buy gold in 2008 are now telling us to buy bitcoin? And we're supposed to believe them? LMAO. I'm putting my money in cash. Under my mattress. With a gun.
Heath OBrien
December 29, 2025 AT 11:57you’re all delusional. this isn’t investing. it’s religious devotion. bitcoin is a cult. and you’re the priests. i’m out. peace 🤝
Taylor Farano
December 30, 2025 AT 21:37Let’s be real. The only people who made money in crypto are the ones who sold at the top. Everyone else is just waiting for the next pump so they can finally break even. This article is a sales funnel disguised as wisdom. Congrats. You just monetized fear.